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ONLF on the brink of another Strategic Mistake as Usual. By Eng Diriye |
What is being circulated in the media, that ONLF is making an Alliance with the other Ethiopian Oppositions headed by OLF which are backed by Afework is not a choice of ONLF leadership, but an imposed one. It is natural for any political entity the backer have the last say and Afework is assuming the formula by which he overthrew Mengistu in alliance with Meles of TPLF. In that case EPLF of Eritrea was the main power and TPLF was subordinate; and by this he was dictating to Meles during the transition. In their favor they included in the constitution Article#39 item# 1, which gives the right for cessation for any nation, nationality or people in Ethiopia.
The ONLF which was not member of the fronts that overthrew Mengistu at the time misunderstood the constitution, thought the article is for them and were claiming after the transition that be offered referendum for self determination.
In politics the partners for any settlement they consider the concerns of other party. The fact was that Eritrea left Ethiopia and Meles was suffering strong criticism from all over Ethiopia, although the cessation of Eritrea was beyond his power and he was in need of them as EPLF forces were those helping TPLF for controlling the security and stability including the Somali region.
The westerns pressured TPLF not to leave Ethiopia ,but lead it and TPLF condition was if we do not lead we will leave as per article#39 item# 1 of Federal constitution. The ONLF for many reasons, mainly lack of minimum infrastructure and caders the region was not prepared for Independence. However considering the political situation in Ethiopia it was Political suicide for meles. It was fact that Eritrea left and if the somali region follows, then he have to go to Mekele. But staying with Ethiopia they could have bargained and got many rights and Facilities not enjoyed by others as the Somali region was recognized one of the neglected regions like the Afars and Southern peoples.This is what I see as the strategic choice mistake committed by then ONLF leadership.
Afework, who knew the suffering of Ethiopian Somalis and their struggle for independence, he never mentioned their case nor mediated between Meles and ONLF while he was in the honeymoon with Meles ,with all what the Somalis offered to the people of Eritrea.When 1998 the Eritrean/Ethiopian war broke over badame and Zelambasa, the Eritrean were overpowered and Asmara was to be captured if international community did not stop Ethiopian defense forces. Afework was forced to sign a typical "Versailles treaty", which the Germans sign after they were defeated in World war I. He thought Meles of yesterday, who was his lieutenant and roughly with six million Tigreans. But Meles was Head of Ethiopia with 80 million people. He knew if he fires one bullet again, Meles will back fire and may be his end.By this he prefered to fight proxy wars with Ethiopia and required the Help of ONLF and other Ethiopian opposition; Like Syrians could not fight Israel to return their occupied Golan heights and prefered to fight Israel in proxy war through Hamas and Hezboulah.
In politics principles, it says "Do not Ally with the loser" and Eritrea was the loser. Plus as mentioned above when he could help me he neglected me and I should neglect him at least. But the ONLF accepted,assuming he will be with their case till the end. The Destiny will be as it happened when Mengistu made the peace agreement with Siad barre of Somalia, He ordered the SSDF, SNM and USC to make peace with Siad Barre or leave Ethiopia, by which reciprocally Siad Barre Suspended the WSLF and the same will apply to ONLF if Afework makes peace with Meles.And this what I consider the second strategic mistake ONLF made.
Coming back to the current media reports, there are two changes expected to come. one is the ONLF alliance with OLF of Oromos, which Mr. Abdirahman Madey,foreign affairs head for ONLF declared in his speech at the USA and was later denied by The Admiral Mohammed Omar, chairman of ONLF in his interview with Universal TV. The second is that the said replacement of the Admiral by Mr. Madey as the chairman of ONLF.
Starting with the first it is logic due to the fact that the self determination of Ethiopian Somalis is through Addisabeba and not through the Jungles of Garbo. Mr. Madey understood the first strategic mistake made by ONLF and is trying to correct but with another mistake. The disaster is that assuming your alliance with OLF took power of Addisabeba, OLF is considering to release Tigray and Amaras as independent states,because they can not rule them and prefer to minimize their headache. Considering after bargain they let you also go, here is the devil and the disaster to come. You have many Badames with Oromos, unlike the one Badame between Tigray and Eritrea.
Your current regional capital may be one of them and they may claim Hageisa of Somaliland. The Oromos being already at least six times your population and having all the resources of Ethiopia will dictate you what they want and where your border passes and you have to accept or again start new liberation wars. means start from zero,maybe this time an other alliance with those who want to get out of Oromo rule,like Gurage, Benishengul, silte Afar etc.
If that is the case and they decide to make an alliance with Ethiopian opposition, why they should not make alliance and peace with existing regime ,which has no boarder claims with me and secure my recognized Somali territory in Ethiopia or the case is as somali thought says "Doqoni meeshay ka tagtay ku noqoshadeeda ceebbay mooddaa" which means "A fool thinks an insult if he go back to the position he left".
Coming to the second point,regarding the replacement of ONLF chairmanship it is understood that it came in line with the convenience of Afwerk and not the will of the Part of Oganis who are pro current ONLF and will say we are also here "Dabaqodhi" or puppets of Afework and will not accept. Mr. Abdirahman Maddey was in charge for ONLF foreign affairs and had not contact with military wing of ONLF. The Admiral himself is in direct command and full control of it. It is expected the Admiral will not be happy with both expected changes. For his replacement he lost one of his closest colleagues, late Dr. Dolal and Mr. Salahudin Maow and also ONLF lost many supports for the same case. The bench mark is that if replaced the Admiral and blackmailed not to speak/do anything it will be understood from his silence,but history will not forgive him But if he gets a way out of Eritrea and not blackmailed,here is the scenario I anticipate.
He will immediately declare that he is still the legal and official chairman of ONLF
He will call meeting for the ONLF executive committee who will remain with him and I believe the majority will remain with him for redrawing the new strategy and political vision for ONLF
- He will instruct Field commanders to be in full alert and not take any instruction from any body else except him
- He will declare unilateral cease fire
Arrangements will be made for peace negotiations without preconditions with Ethiopia
- ONLF will recognize the Constitution of Ethiopia
Ethiopian Govt. will recognize ONLF as political party with its charter of seeking self determination for Ethiopian Somalis.
- With first congress of ONLF at homeland, they will review the charter of ONLF being the first amendment the name ONLF with SNLF (Somali National Libration Front) to be represented by all Ethiopian Somalis
However if these two did not happen the impass in Somali region will remain for indefinite time but not later than 2012
Diriye Islan
dirieislan@yahoo.com
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