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»Realities in Ethiopia, the Effect of HR2003 and the Regime’s reaction
Realities in Ethiopia, the Effect of HR2003 and the Regime’s reaction

*Farah Abdulsamed (Kanada)

On October 2, following the passage of HR2003 in the US Congress, the Ethiopian ambassador to US, Mr. Samuel Asseffa, hastily scribbled down a statement condemning the legislation. Therefore, we critically examine the 13-pragraph letter and the essence of its content.

In his starting statement, Mr. Assefa decries the legislation as irresponsible which could create fresh obstacles to Ethiopia’s bold efforts towards comprehensive democratic reforms. He also argued that the legislation would undermine the regional stability.

I’m sure that (in the pit of his stomach) Mr. Assefa himself is happy with the decision and regards it as a positive step towards stable and democratic Ethiopia. He should know much better than anyone else in Washington about the (non-existent) democratic situation of the country he is representing. No one doubts that more Ethiopians are languishing in the jails today than anytime before; thousands have already lost their lives in the hands of the regime; others disappeared; and the remaining are living in fear with no end in sight. It is therefore, true that this legislation may hinder the bold efforts of this regime in which it has been massacring, jailing, intimidating, and terrorising its own citizens.

Certainly the current oppressive Ethiopian government, knowing its internal weaknesses, tries its best to benefit from the turmoil and civil strife that have dominated the lives of many societies in the region. It irresponsibly manipulates the situation and divides the people, pitting one another. The regime has deceitfully taken advantage of the war on terror, turning some parts of the country completely insecure and inaccessible just to mislead the international community and divert attention from its domestic misdeeds. I have no doubt that the current government is rarely concerned about the well-being of its people, and even less about other communities in the wider region. We know the depth of the conflict with Eritrea and the Ethiopian government-sponsored mess in Somalia. This together with the fact that it has frosty relationship (at best) with Kenya, Sudan and Djibouti speaks volumes of the Ethiopian government’s stand and role in the prevailing regional instability. Now every sensible person may ask themselves how democracy and justice in Ethiopia could undermine the stability of the Horn of African countries. However, I would have accepted if the ambassador argued that this legislation would destabilise the government and weaken its grip on power.

Today’s Ethiopia is definitely different from the picture the ambassador is trying to depict about the country. The fact that the system is terribly secretive and is dominated by Tigrians gives lies to the assertions of Mr. Assefa. One doesn’t need to be an expert at contemporary Ethiopia to understand the compositions of the National Defence Force, the security agencies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Office of EPRDF/TPLF. These are the core decision makers of the country. The recent promotion of some military officers (dominated by Tigreans) is evidence against Mr. Assefa’s argument of equality and openness. Furthermore, before the election of 2005 Ministry of Federal Affairs was active in controlling the regions – Afar, Gambela, Somali and Binshangul, Gumuz. What is its role now? Very passive – simply because there is neither Tigrian Minister nor a State Minister who could be trusted with the responsibilities.

The ambassador unashamedly tried to present the presence of some CUD leaders in the hearing as an evidence of the firm commitment his government has to implement democracy and resolve differences in dialogue. But he seems to have forgotten that few may disagree that these individuals were arrested and convicted simply because they have opposed the government and challenged it openly. I personally do not know the CUD leaders and I’m by no means here to judge them positively or otherwise. I can’t imagine what sort of government institutions they would have established had they got the opportunity. But I have no qualms to say that both their arrest and release were purely political. It is well known that the regime has a culture of fixing intelligence around a decision already taken.

Indeed, contrary to the claim of the ambassador, the measure taken by the Congress is therefore, great help to the people of the Horn and a constructive advice and guidance to the regime. The measure says do not kill your people but help them; do not rape, but protect; do not harass, but comfort; do not abuse the power, but govern responsibly – so what is wrong with it. Why the government feels under pressure? Was it so vulnerable?

The ambassador did repeatedly, but selectively quoted Dr. Jendayi Frazier, the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. But on many occasions the Assistant Secretary criticised the regime for not keeping its words and committing grave human right abuses. She clearly expressed her frustration over the situation in Ogaden and the slow progress of democratising the country. More importantly, Dr. Frazier put it clearly that her major task was to serve the American interest and not that of Ethiopia. If the ambassador and his seniors in Addis Ababa have an ounce of brain in their heads, this could give them an invaluable lesson to right the wrongs they have been committing for the last sixteen years and take care of their citizens.

In his statement, the ambassador mentioned the UN report which, some months ago, criticised Eritrea for supplying weapons to the Somalia insurgents. But unfortunately he failed to raise (or probably even remember the existence of) the more recent UN report which detailed the atrocities his government has been undertaking in Ogaden – including starvation and food and water blockade.

Surely, the legislation has proven that the ambitions of TPLF leadership to dominate the Horn of Africa politically and militarily in the foreseeable future, sits closer to fantasy than reality. They have entangled themselves in Somalia problems; the conflict with Eritrea is far from resolved yet; the living cost is an issue felt everywhere in the country; the economy is in tatters; and the security is deteriorating faster than they have planned for. Domestically, the system is becoming increasingly unpopular, vulnerable and threatened. It depends heavily on military power and US’s unconditional assistance. War on terror has worked wonders for the regime (internationally) as a short-term political weapon, but will definitely fail it in the not too distant future.

While we know the situation of the country, the government has recently pledged to send 5000 troops to Darfur as part of AU/UN peace keepers. There are Ethiopian peace keepers in Burundi as well. All this is showing the bizarre priorities of the regime – oppress the people domestically and build spurious international image. History is telling us however, that military victory nearly always failed to turn into political success. How far can it survive then? The situation in Ogaden is getting worse, Oromo is far from stable, Amhara region is increasingly getting volatile, tense in Southern people’s region is brewing fast, and Tigrai region is no more a secure place. Violence is everywhere and shows no sign of ending. The regime has no strategic direction to solve the problems or even disentangle itself from the mess it has created. Undoubtedly, TPLF is so incompetent and poorly prepared to face the challenges and come up with alternative measures that can tackle the social and economic difficulties it has sown. Sadly, as the regime commits costly political and social mistakes frequently, it seems gravely detached from the truth and deeply misinformed, running away with baseless and shallow impressions of success.

Therefore, I’d advise Ambassador Assefa not to waste his time and reputation by criticising international communities for seeing the atrocities and degradations his government is subjecting to its citizens.

*The Author is Director Centre for Development research and Advocacy based in London and has published widely on Ethiopia. He can be reached farahafey@Gmail.com
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